18 Mar 2009

My 8 predictions if IBM acquires Sun Microsystem

open_source posted by kapil

There are rumours on IBM aquiring Sun Microsystem for $6.5B. Is it going to change things around for people? I have some predictions

1.  IBM offering MySQL to smaller companies

IBM already  have DB2, Cloudscape, solidDB, Informix. But, most are targeted at enterprise customers. By purchasing MySql, IBM can use that as a step towards their database offering for smaller companies.

2. Nothing will happen to Java

Java is in the hands of the JCP.And we hope it will not change anything around there. But I am not sure about upcoming stuff like JavaFX and SWT. IBM likes java a lot but I dont think there will be IBM JAVA coming out.

3. Open Source will be more enterprisy

I expect a lot more open source marketing coming out of the merger. A lot more work for Sun community.  But , also, a much higher fee for services built over open source stacks. I don’t expect much from the company that invest in their own version of unix (AIX).

4. Some Sun Products may be Canned

Solaris; Netbeans; Glassfish; MySQL; Open Office;   I think there is a price to be paid especially in big mergers and consolidations where people who take decisions are least bothered about the users. IBM and Sun have got a lot of common products in their stacks. I expect some products get canned.

5. Cloud Computing is the next buzzword

It already is. But expect some more fuel. Sun recently announced Sun Cloud Services and Sun Cloud Compute Service .   With Amazon being the leader and other biggies like Google and Microsoft working on this, Sun Backed by IBM might come up with something more interesting especially with lot of open source projects they already have. Now you know one keyword which should be there in your resume – Cloud Computing.

6. Processor

Sun’s SPARC or IBM’s PowerPC ? Any Guesses ?

7. Application Server

I don’t like websphere. I hope it doesn’t become the default application software.

8.  Industries

IBM would like to have some control over financial services industry where Sun is pretty Strong.

Overall , I think Sun require IBM for cash-flow and reach for their OSS initiatives. After months of knocking on doors at HP and Dell , I think Sun might have found someone.

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  • Solaris is a superior UNIX distro and IBM would be nuts to can it. I have worked in finance for 2 years and Solaris is everywhere, it is more stable than any other OS I have ever worked with.

    With MySql so pervasive in e-commerce I can't see this being killed either.
  • J.T. Wenting
    1) won't happen. It's more likely to get canned.
    2) won't happen. It's gonna be much more tightly integrated with WebSphere, probably to the point where it can't be effectively used outside of the context of WebSphere (like Visual Basic and ASP.NET with Visual Studio).
    3) IBM does only lip service to open source. It will be marginalised.
    4) Most Sun products will end up axed. The rest will be merged into existing IBM products.
    5) Possibly. But then it's no more than a buzzeword to describe what many, including IBM, have been doing for decades.
    6) PowerPC. SPARC is an outdated hardware architecture that has outlived its usefulness.
    7) WebSphere is central to everything IBM. They might take some of SAS's features to improve WSs user interface, but little else.
    8) probably the main real thing IBM will get out of it is indeed Sun's customer portfolio.

    If this happens, expect free standalone Java distributions from Sun/IBM to disappear rapidly, tight integration with WS to be pushed to the extreme.
    The desired end result being to push JBoss and other competitors that don't have their own JDK out of the market, and eventually those as well as IBM changes the language standard to tie it completely to the WebSphere platform in ways that make it utterly incompatible with those competing products.
  • Allen
    Re #4: Solaris will be canned.

    Doubt it. AIX and Solaris both have to contend with linux and I think Solaris has the edge in that it runs on intel. They will both be kept around and they will converge on some weird Linux-like amalgam. It will be very interesting.

    Like others have said, OpenOffice will endure. At the very least it annoys MS.
  • foo
    @Michele:

    > #4 Netbeans will be merged with Eclipse: it will become an Eclipse perspective (to buy in those used to it) and in 1-2 major release it will become just another Eclipse distribution. Which, I think, it’s a good thing.
    Netbeans as Eclipse distribution? It sounds IMPOSSIBLE to me

    > #7 Glassfish is doomed. One less AppServer in the market…
    glassfish is the REFERENCE IMPLEMENTATION of JEE
  • Michele
    #1 and #4: I won't bet my house on MySQL, though: IBM already has too much databases... maybe it'll just throw it to the community to mantain...

    #4 Netbeans will be merged with Eclipse: it will become an Eclipse perspective (to buy in those used to it) and in 1-2 major release it will become just another Eclipse distribution. Which, I think, it's a good thing.
    OpenOffice's for-pay version will become the next Symphony release.
    Glassfish will probably become the next 'Websphere developer edition' and slowly die
    Will Websphere learn something from the Sun staff? we can only hope.

    #2 SWT is IBM's brainchild. It's here to stay. JavaFX it's crucial for Java to have a chance in the RIA space.

    #3 OS will definetly become more 'enterprisy'. Try to sue again, Microsoft...

    #6 SPARC will go the way of the Alpha...

    #7 Glassfish is doomed. One less AppServer in the market...
  • Interesting predictions. I have been thinking that IBM should by Sun for a number of years now.

    For prediction #2, IBM already has there own JVM (J9). Sun does not ship a Java version for AIX of z/OS so IBM has their own.

    #6 PowerPC. I don't think SPARC has a chance.

    #4 IBM uses Open office in their Symphony suite. I think they might spin of mysql though.
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